How the Autumn Climbing Season Turned Deadly in the Himalayas
Clear skies, gentle breezes and a panoramic vista of majestic summits covered in snow - that is the fall setting that trekkers on the world's highest peak have come to love.
However this appears to be changing.
Changing Weather Patterns
Weather experts indicate the monsoon now extends into fall, which is historically the high-altitude tourism period.
During this delayed tail end of monsoon, they have documented at least one occurrence of extreme rainfall almost every year for the past ten years, with mountain conditions becoming increasingly hazardous.
Recent Emergency on Everest
Last weekend, a sudden blizzard trapped several hundred of visitors near the eastern face of Mount Everest for days in bitterly cold temperatures at an elevation of more than 16,000ft.
Almost six hundred hikers were led to safety by the conclusion of that week, according to sources.
One person had succumbed from hypothermia and mountain sickness, but the others were reportedly in stable condition.
Comparable Events Across the Region
This was on the Tibetan side but something similar had occurred on the southern slope, where a Korean mountaineer died on another Himalayan summit.
The international community learned much later because communication lines were affected by heavy downpours and significant snow accumulation.
Officials calculate that mudslides and flash floods in the country have claimed the lives of around sixty individuals over the past week.
"It is highly unusual for October when we expect the skies to stay clear," commented Riten Jangbu Sherpa.
Business Impact
Considering autumn represents the favored season, regular storms like these have "disrupted our trekking and climbing industry," he continued.
The rainy period in northern India and the Himalayan nation typically lasts from early summer to mid-September, but no longer.
"Research indicates that most of the years in the past ten years have had rainy seasons continuing until the second week of autumn, which is definitely a change," said a high-ranking weather official.
Growing Weather Extremes
Even more concerning is the intense rain and snowfall the tail end of the period brings, like it did recently on early October.
High in the Himalayas, such severe conditions translates to snowstorms and snowstorms, which constitutes a significant risk for trekking, mountaineering and tourism.
Personal Accounts
Exactly what occurred last weekend when the weather changed quite abruptly - the winds began howling, mercury readings dropped sharply and sightlines dropped drastically.
The road that had easily led the hikers to what should have been a breathtaking resting point was now buried in snow and impossible to navigate.
Nevertheless, one trekker, who had climbed the Himalayas more than a twelve occasions, reported he had "never encountered conditions like these" before.
Scientific Analysis
One major driver is the increased quantity of humidity in the air because of how the world has been warming, scientists say.
That has contributed to torrential rains over a short span of duration, often after a prolonged dry spell – in contrast to in the past when seasonal rains were distributed evenly over the entire season.
A Turbocharged Monsoon
Weather specialists say the rainy seasons in South Asia at times appear to have become stronger because they are increasingly interacting with another atmospheric phenomenon, the westerly disturbance.
The phenomenon is a low pressure system that originates in the Mediterranean region and moves eastward - it carries cold air that brings precipitation and occasionally snowfall to the subcontinent, Pakistan and the Himalayan region.
Global Change Effects
Scientists have also discovered that in a heating planet, the increasing relationship between western weather systems and seasonal rains is causing another atypical outcome.
The hotter atmosphere is pushing the clouds higher, which indicates these atmospheric conditions are now capable to pass over the Himalayas and reach Tibet and other areas that did not see as much rain in the past.
"What's changed is the predictability of weather patterns; we can't assume that conditions will behave the same from year to year," said an experienced expedition leader.
"This implies flexible scheduling, real-time choices, and experienced leadership [in the Himalayas] have become increasingly crucial."